Agnis, Prithvis and Suryas, Oh My!

Yesterday's Global Security Newswire featured two worrying related stories that have me thinking about nuclear security on the South Asian subcontinent.

In the first, India test-launched a short-range ballistic missile called the Prithvi-2, and although the test itself failed, it was indicative of India's continuing efforts to create a missile defense shield against perceived threats from neighboring Pakistan and China, both of whom have collaborated with each other in the past (this is mentioned briefly by Jeffrey Lewis on his blog today at ArmsControlWonk.com, which in turn is in reference to today's Washington Post article on AQ Khan).

In the second article, India's Defense Research Development Organization (DRDO) is continuing efforts to develop a long-range cruise missile, the Agni-5, and the government plans to test that early next year. Meaning India, undeterred by the failed Prithvi test, will still continue developing its short-, medium- and long-range capabilities against perceived and potential threats, both near and far. They're even working on a proper ICBM, the Surya, to add intercontinental capability to their arsenal.

I fear for the subcontinent, really I do. It is true that despite their bitter 63-year relationship, India and Pakistan have had the occasional breakthrough. Yet in the past year since the Mumbai attacks of November 2008, any positive relations have been overshadowed by renewed mistrust, obscure intelligence reports, questionable military moves and dubious intents. It certainly doesn't help that AQ Khan has been up to no good in Pakistan. Despite his constant complaining on how much his movements are restricted by his nation's government, and regardless of how much he tries to push blame for his actions onto others, he still was pardoned by Musharraf in 2004, and he was finally released from house arrest last year. His presence, writing and actions are doing nothing to mitigate Indo-Pak tensions.

India's continuing investment into missile defense R&D is understandable, from New Delhi's perspective. But building up a missile defense shield is only going to strain Indo-Pak relations further.