Nuclear Musical Chairs

Just until last week, Pakistan and China were forging ahead with a civilian nuclear deal, although now things don't look so sure. India and South Korea, looking to strengthen ties, agreed two weeks ago to start discussing nuclear trade. And now India and Canada have entered into a nuclear cooperation agreement.

What is going on? Why the sudden uptick in bilateral nuclear energy agreements? And how interesting that these talks and agreements are being struck with India and Pakistan. It seems that everyone wants a slice of the action in South Asia.

The watershed decision that sparked this race? Why, the Bush legacy US-India deal, of course. I've talked about this agreement once before. No, twice before. There is no doubt in this writer's mind that the agreement was a bad idea from the very start -- not from a practical, energy needs-addressing standpoint, but from an international legal and precedent perspective. It should never have been done. After all, Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) rules dictate that agreements with any country that is not party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) are not permitted. Yet the US was able to flex some muscle a few years ago and get the NSG to allow an exception to the rules for India.

And just last week, the annual NSG meeting was held in Christchurch, New Zealand, where the China-Pakistan deal was to be discussed one way or another. The NSG members were expecting China to explain its position and answer fundamental questions that would clarify exactly how the deal would take place and be implemented -- especially since nuclear-related trade between an NSG member and a country that is not party to the NPT is prohibited. As it turned out, the Chinese were unable to provide answers to these core questions, and now it appears the deal may not happen at all. But the fact that this item was even on the agenda at all -- and that it has garnered considerable international media attention -- is a testament to the staying power and legacy of the US-India deal, which violated the very same rules that the China-Pakistan deal would have broken. In fact, reports the BBC:

In 2008 the US pushed through an exemption at the Nuclear Suppliers Group enabling India to buy civil nuclear technology abroad. And going into this meeting China's logic seemed to be that if the US could get a deal for its friend -- India -- then China should be able to do the same for its ally -- Pakistan.

Unfortunately for China and Pakistan, that's not how things are turning out. I'm interested to see how talks between the two countries continue to unfold in the coming weeks.